In 2016, Trump won these Rust Belt counties on the economy. In 2020, he might lose them over coronavirus

Tanya Wojciak, a lifelong Republican and suburban mom from northeast Ohio, is the kind of battleground state voter President Donald Trump can’t afford to lose - but already has.

She is angry at Trump’s handling of the novel coronavirus crisis that has killed more than 219,000 Americans, the largest death toll of any country. She lost a friend to COVID-19 in April.

Wojciak, 39, said Trump’s spotty use of masks and repeated attempts to downplay the seriousness of the coronavirus - even after being hospitalized for it himself - is “not presidential at all.” She said she regrets voting for him four years ago. A hand-painted Biden sign now graces her front lawn in Cortland.

Some 340 miles (547 km) east, in Bangor, Pennsylvania, Leo Bongiorno says he, too, is voting for Biden after sitting out the 2016 contest.

Customers at Bongiorno’s brewery and eatery, Bangor Trust Brewing, remained scarce even after Pennsylvania began to ease its bar-and-restaurant restrictions in June. Daily COVID-19 infections in the state reached their highest totals since mid-April this month, and Bongiorno says many of his regulars are too nervous to go to bars.

The federal relief loan he received was less than he would have made collecting unemployment checks, and the brewery’s monthly bills dwarf sales. He said the country needs a president who understands what small businesses need to survive a pandemic - and that isn’t Trump. “At this point we’re just sitting here waiting for the creditors to come collect,” Bongiorno said.

Rust Belt battleground states including Ohio and Pennsylvania handed Trump the White House in 2016, and they will again help decide the Nov. 3 election. Four years ago, Trump’s message of economic revitalization won votes from many white, working-class voters who had cast ballots for Democrat Barack Obama in 2012.

Many of those voters remain loyal to the president. Still, support for Trump is slipping in these states this year, and the pandemic is a big reason why. Polling data show the 2020 race is increasingly becoming a referendum on the president’s handling of COVID-19.

Reuters/Ipsos polling, conducted Oct. 9-13, showed 50% of likely voters nationwide feel Biden would be better at managing the pandemic response, compared to 37% for Trump.

Opinion polling in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin shows that voters there, too, think Biden is the better candidate to lead on the coronavirus.

Recent polls by Reuters/Ipsos and others show Biden tied with Trump in Ohio and leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit by narrower margins than Biden’s double-digit lead nationally.

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Mandi Merritt said Trump has taken “swift and decisive action on the coronavirus every step of the way.”

“While Democrats continue to play politics with the coronavirus and a vaccine, President Trump continues to lead the country on a path to recovery,” Merritt said in a statement to Reuters.