The group continues to present alternative projects to the analysis of former RA Deputy Prime Minister Armen Gevorgyan about the sharp turns of the world.
The first part is presented below. The main regional attention, the target was and will remain Iran and everything related to it, so the United States will not be able to lose interest in the region. This interest will also stimulate the rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Israel.
That's why the understanding that the region will remain under Russia's auspices under Russia's auspices, not rationally.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani Peace Agreement and the so-called Zangezur corridor will remain at the domain of the latent interests of the United States and its regional allies.
Azerbaijan will try to limit the influence of Turkey, Russia and Iran on its independent position and will strengthen its relations with the new American administration. This will include the obvious desire to limit Turkish appetites. · The West will strengthen the Russian-Chinese-Indian transport and logistics race and competition. North-South Corridor, Corridor from China to Europe Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as a new Arab-Indian transport route to Europe.
The escalation of interests in this area can be a real challenge for the viability of "BRICS +". Generalization. We need to be guided by the fact that there will be great potential for confrontation in the region.
According to the decision of the parties, Russia will not automatically become a regional dominator in the South Caucasus. Russia will simply have the opportunity to rename this region. Time will show that the Turkish factor will be the most difficult challenge for the "three giants" in the near future to the region, including in the region, will show it. Russia must hold an inevitable strategic dialogue with Turkey, as the territories of the contact are very large, the Black Sea and the war in Ukraine, Syria and there, South Caucasus, Central Asia, North Africa.
The recent events in Abkhazia show that there are no taboos in relations with Russia for the ruling Turkish elite, and they can also be absent when it is necessary to destabilize separate Russia regions. The compulsory strengthening of the Russian-Turkish Energy Cooperation sets new formats of mutual dependence and tension. Turkey, with its support of its Western partners, will try to implement new gas and oil transit projects as soon as possible from the Persian Gulf and Central Asia to Europe, which will obviously contradicts Russia's interests.
The situation for Russia is somewhat complicated that the current component of Russia and Armenia has played a significant role in Armenia's dominant position in the region, while Russia has only declared its strategic disagreement with this process of events. As a result, "3 + 3" formats appear, the viability of which will depend on the results of the global "re-accordance". Turkey must also establish more constructive relations with China, in the context of new drafts of transport and communication in the South Caucasus, and its active interest in the rights of Uyghurs, as it can encourage Kurdish ambitions outside Turkey in the region.
It is a new challenge for the future of regional stability and security, the growing strategic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel.
Aliyev wants to leave both the dependence of both Russia, and it makes Israel its new ally, in fact increasing the contrast in relations with Russia, Turkey and Iran. Israel becomes not only an ally for Azerbaijan, but also the main "lawyer" of the World Economic Partner and the Aliyev Family.
Azerbaijan is investing in its own oil and gas in other projects, particularly Israeli, as first natural resources are already consumed, and new tools are being created. It cannot be ruled out that the rapprochement of Israel and Azerbaijan has become the main reason for the Israeli authorities to increase repressive pressure on the Armenian cultural and religious heritage in Jerusalem. By the way, the Republic of Armenia cannot and should not remain indifferent. But on the other hand, the necessary cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israeli can establish practical motivation, which can be fateful for its own Russian-Azerbaijani energy partnership, Russia should be interested in the restriction of Azerbaijan's economic capabilities.
Such militarization becomes instability and new challenges in the region, including Russia's southern borders. Aliyev's great ambitions have potential to face internal political stability and the issue of national minorities in this country. Therefore, the issues of continuing the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group, the release of Armenian captives, the release of Armenian captives and the preservation of Armenian cultural and religious heritage in Artsakh can become legitimate topics in relations with Azerbaijan. It is obvious that Russia will seek the most difficult solutions to Armenia, where it will be necessary to find a strategically reliable partner in terms of strategic terms.
A partner that will be prepared enough for a tough but constructive dialogue with the Turkic world.
Although Russia will seek to dismantle the institutional mechanisms of Western influence throughout Georgia, it will be necessary to clearly understand the fact that a significant part of the society cannot accept and reconcile with the lack of an alternative to pro-Russian orientation. And all the future authorities in Armenia will have to take into account this layout of things.
Russia must be ready. The launch of a new railway and Abkhazia to the Black Sea of the Black Sea, the new nuclear power budget is becoming logical. Protection.
Economically, Armenia does not have the significance of the new focus of the United States. The rules of the game, whom the current Armenian authorities are used to relations with the West, will no longer operate in the coming years. Each case will have a package of its individual solutions.
We need to work pragmatic with Europe. I have already described the five main directions of such work in my previous articles. Recent events around Ukraine show that there is no hope for protecting our sovereignty and ensure security.
By the way, this was clearly clear to all reasonable people. Europe itself is now looking for real mechanisms to ensure their own security. Yerevan, first of all, should be careful not to become a regional center of "liberalism" in order not to turn to the "toxic neighbor", for example, Georgia and Iran with Armenia. The issue of government in Armenia is inevitably escalated. Aliyev and Erdogan, as well as Europe, have practical interest in maintaining the current authorities, but even without even "engagement" prospect. And most of the Armenian society quickly loses its practical interest in the velvet authorities.
The main problem within the country is the search for an alternative, which can replace the current authorities in this global transformations. It is clear that the longer the alternative not appeared, the longer the current agony and foreign policy will continue, and the opportunities that open before Armenia are in a new, unique geopolitical manner, can be finally closed.
In this case, non-governmental political forces and institutions will also be responsible for further maintaining the internal political situation. It should be remembered that history does not like the website and does not tolerate subjective moods, and future generations can easily sign equality between all participants in today's political process due to crashed national dignity and state sovereignty.
