The "Fact" daily writes:
The rapid growth of remittances from Armenia, which significantly exceeds the pace of transmission from abroad to Armenia, raises great concerns both economies stability and capital health and health care.
In recent years, the statistics and structural changes have found that Armenia is under great migration and socio-economic pressure, but also faces the risk of capital, often unfounded, rapid uncertainties, ending with changes in the foreign geopolitical environment and the instability of the business environment.
Historically, Russia has been the main source of private remittances to Armenia, both as a result of labor migration and perennial economic ties. This trend has also been preserved in recent years. For example, in 2024 the volume of money transferred to Armenia exceeded $ 3.8 billion, which has increased more than four times compared to 2021. And in January-July 2025, individuals from Armenian banks received about $ 3.3 billion from abroad, recording an increase of 9.3% compared to last year.
Russia is again the largest source of money in the inflow of money, $ 2.1 billion has been transferred in seven months, which is more than two-thirds of the inflow. The United States, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and the UAE are followed by more modest volumes, although the growth rates of transfers are quite high, which is a vivid example of 2.5 times the UK or 43.7 percent increase in Switzerland.
However, these figures have no predominant role, as the Russian direction remains the main "supplier". In the first seven months of this year, about $ 2.6 billion was transferred from Armenia abroad, which increased by 14.2% or $ 321 million compared to the same period last year.
This is a much higher rate than the 9.3 percent increase in inflow. It is more remarkable that the growth of transfers in certain directions is extraordinary high. For example, Switzerland transfers reached $ 387 million, which is 2.5 times more than a year ago. Transfers to Russia amounted to $ 420 million, increasing by 20.1%.
Transfers to the United States, UAE and other countries have a tendency to grow, although some statistical picture shows that Armenia is not only remaining a country living with money, but that is more dangerous, gradually becomes an active source of capital leakage. The main reasons for the latter are complex and multi-layered. The first reason is probably the lack of stability and predictability of the internal economic and business environment. In recent years, the investment ecosystem has been seriously affected in recent years due to political instability, the unpredictability of legislative changes, tightening tax and customs administration with corruption risks and inefficient management.
Many businessmen, investors and even individual citizens have started to prefer to move their resources or temporarily in foreign banks, in more reliable financial centers, as far as this process is accompanied by losses or additional costs.
This is also the fluctuations of the dram's revaluation against the dollar, the uncertainty in the currency market, as well as the security of the accounts and banking services abroad. It is a change in the foreign policy environment. The sharp deterioration of Russia's and the West's relations with the Russian-Ukrainian war, the spread of international sanctions on Russian banks and businesses, were a new wave of movement or money transferred to Armenian businessmen and private individuals related to Russia.
This led to the influx of money from Russia to Armenia, but over time Russians and accounts, the Russians and other foreigners began to move their resources to third countries.
This process, in fact, changes the geography of financial corridors and complicates the possibilities of Armenia's financial control and monitoring. Especially the increase in the volume of money transferred to Switzerland and the UAE proves that we are dealing with not only business capital, but also to the outflow of personal savings, which is often due to risk management, or simply with the crisis of trust.
In addition, the acceleration of capital leakage also contributes to the deepening of the internal social and economic problems of Armenia. The labor market lack of young people and highly qualified specialists emigration, the sense of uncertain future often motivates not only employees but to their families and relatives abroad. Some do this for learning, treatment or other necessary expenses, while others have insurance against internal political or economic shocks.
In addition, the increase in remittances from Armenia outside Armenia is not only a matter of economic health, but also to reduce liquidity of the financial market, fluctuations in the national currency, as well as the decline in the tax base. If this trend continues, the financial system may lead to a lack of cash, and the risk of investment, and the risk of long-term economic slowdown is also dangerous, because they are not a stable source of foreign economic crises, and in countries of migration and political situation. For example, economic difficulties in Russia, the impairment of currency or restrictions on migrants may sharply reduce the flow of money to Armenia, what examples have already been in previous years.
The Central Bank's allegations that remittances are no longer a significant factor for our economy, actually reflect not the real picture, but a political or methodological need, trying to hide the alarming fact of capital leakage.
In fact, even if the share of remittances in GDP has decreased by export growth or other macroeconomic indicators, the overflow of the capital has already become a large-scale threat that it can create serious dangers for the country's financial stability, banking system and economic development. The fact that capital leakage is often accompanied by corruption transactions, attempts to avoid tax obligations or direct trust in the government, which deepens the systemic crisis.
Arthur Karapetyan
