"Fact" daily writes:
Armenia's economic problems continue to become more pronounced, as the favorable external conditions for ensuring economic growth gradually begin to change.
It is true that Armenia's economy continues to grow, but the dynamics of growth is significantly decreasing.
As we know, in this year's draft state budget, the government set an ambitious goal, predicting 7% economic growth.
And if the representatives of the government considered the expectations of 7% economic growth for this year completely realistic, now the situation has completely changed.
Minister of Finance Vahe Hovhannisyan already admits that in the first half of 2024 it was possible to register 6.5 percent economic growth.
Moreover, the annual economic growth in 2024 is predicted at the level of 5.8 percent, and in 2025, it will be lower at 5.6 percent.
In other words, the authorities have not fulfilled their promises of 7% economic growth. And it is not excluded that the scale of the 5.8% growth forecasts will be lowered again by the end of the year.
Of course, according to their habit, the authorities could have set expectations of another 7 percent economic growth in the basis of the next year's budget draft, if it didn't work out, then somehow justified it, but they lowered that scale significantly.
This means that those in charge of the economic sphere also see risks regarding the economic progress of Armenia.
Moreover, it is so big that their populism may not help.
According to the 2025 state budget, the expenditure part is planned to be 3.5 trillion drams, of which the revenue part is 2.9 trillion drams. It turns out that we will actually have a deficit of 600 billion drams for the next year.
In other words, the times when Pashinyan used to announce in the government meetings that they have overachieved in terms of tax collection and ensuring budget revenues are gone.
And the next year's budget can already be called not ambitious, but pathetic. Under these conditions, the main question remains, how should the government close the gap in the budget?
The answer is simple: the government will take new loans until all limits are exhausted.
For example, a few days ago, the government approved two loan projects, which will increase the external debt of RA by a total of 286 million euros.
And the state debt of Armenia has already crossed the border of 12.5 billion dollars and increases by 100 million dollars every three months. Another important issue is that the borrowed funds are not used purposefully and do not contribute to the creation of additional economic results, but only solve the problem of closing the gaps in the budget.
If in 2019, Pashinyan announced that we do not have and will not have a money problem, now the money problem is becoming more urgent. In this case, it would be normal for the belts to be tightened and the budget to be balanced to some extent.
But the government does not intend to reduce the spending part of the budget in those directions that are not of a key nature from the point of view of serving public interests.
For example, from time to time we find out what kind of expensive cars the authorities are buying or making such extravagant expenses that are not necessary at all.
If Pashinyan were now in the position of an oppositionist, he would tear his throat out from the NA podium and give examples of different countries (his favorite example is Denmark) on how state funds are spent ineffectively. And when he is in power, the complete opposite happens, they spend as much as they want and take loans to make those expenses a reality.
The authorities are not very interested in the fact that these accumulating credit obligations will become a burden for future generations, the important thing is that this burden does not remain on their shoulders.
Well, we know, Pashinyan is good at giving speeches, not hanging bells. And this applies to other government officials as well.
But the surprising thing is that in such a situation, the Minister of Finance declares that economic growth and a high sense of security should turn the wheel of emigration back.
What is high economic growth if it does not exist? Economically, the sense of security is also at a very low level, because the economy of RA has been largely dependent on external factors, and in this regard, uncertainties are increasing.
For example, at the moment when the new administration is being formed in the USA, it is still unpredictable how Donald Trump's economic policy and stance towards Russia will affect Armenia.
And as for emigration, it does not stop or show tendencies to turn back, but rather accelerates over time.
ARTHUR KARAPETIAN
