Although Western mediation attempts were active in recent months, it seems that this decision of Baku was made with the mediation of Russia (if I am not mistaken, my colleague Hakob Badalyan developed such a hypothesis a few days ago). Political scientist Suren Surenyants wrote about this.
"Azerbaijan's decision followed the CIS summit held in Dushanbe, where Moscow, according to all, came up with new ideas. Overchuk's statement states that Russia seeks to restore its influence in the South Caucasus by controlling the main directions of economic and transport communications. What can be presented from the outside as an independent decision of Baku, actually fits into the framework of Moscow's regional calculations and political strategy.
Of course, the representatives of the current government will present this news with euphoric, obviously pre-election emphasis. If Armenia does not ensure its sovereign and equal participation, this process may turn into a new dependency, this time of an economic nature. The real unblocking will happen only when Armenia will be able to manage the communications passing through its territory, independently and on partnership principles, without external control.
In short, there is a window of opportunity, but it can be closed quickly if instead of multi-layered subject work, we listen to the toasts of the government representatives," he wrote.
