The viability of military blocks will remain in challenge mode. In this regard, contrary to the founding treaty regulations, CSTO's inability (viability) to respond to the problems in the South Caucasus, which are CSTO's statutory goals, will most likely not change in 2025.
We estimate that it is unlikely that the grounds for freezing CSTO membership by Armenia will disappear in 2025, which in our opinion means that the authority of this security structure will continue to be significantly in doubt and a source of consequences for other member states. This is stated in the report of the RA Foreign Intelligence Service.
The growth rate of defense spending by states both in the region and outside the region, the trend of development of armaments and military industry will continue, which will keep the military response to problems as the main practice for actors in our small region.
These realities will continue to generate asymmetric risks for states with objectively small reserves of material and non-material resources, such as Armenia.
It is noted that in 2025, cyber attacks against Armenia's critical infrastructures and defense capabilities will continue to be a challenge.
As part of the toolkit of hybrid pressure applied against the Republic of Armenia by various external actors, the goal of cyber targeting of Armenia's critical infrastructures of varying intensity will continue to be to reach decisions that do not serve Armenia's state interests through economic, political, psychological and informational harmful influence.
