The "Fact" daily writes:
The official figures are hopeful, inflation is not big, the citizen feels the opposite in his daily life.
Parallels do not rise pensions, benefits and salaries. Lilia Amirkhanyan, an expert at the "Hayatsk" analytical center, says we are dealing with a reality where there is statistics, averaged indicator, and there is the opening of that same statistics. "The target inflation stipulated by the Central Bank is 4% of the plural inflation. We are under the target, allowable definition, etc. Inflation in January-August, the consumer price index was 3.6%.
But statistics have a continuation that is its opening. The 3.6% index is an index that has led to 3.6% growth in the price of thousands of goods. Meanwhile, when we study individual products, especially the first-needed products with the population's pocket, the statistics show a real picture that comes to the damage to the population, emptying the citizen's wallet, etc.
What is the reason why the price increases in people's lives are very noticeable, because the prices of basic necessities have risen very much, "Amirkhanyan told" fact ". Speaking about the causes of inflation, it notes that we have the price increase in all services. For example, transport, insurance, educational, personal service, suppose, hairdressing services, etc., they have risen in double digits. "From January 2025, we entered a new field of tax changes.
At the level of propaganda, it was served as a reform, and in fact it was a tax terror. It's a phase process, it's not completely completed. The purpose of the turnover tax is to withdraw the privileged type of tax. Still in the beginning, when only these changes were discussed, we had objective concerns that many services would rise. Today, official statistics show that these services have risen. In question, we have a question, there is a concern here that this may be due to the tax policy.
I would like to look at the problem from an objective point of view. There were truly objective problems under the goals based on these tax changes. It was objective that the preferential tax system also tried to use businesses that preferred not to expand and remain in a preferential system.
But there is a question here, in such a socio-economic situation and stability environment that everyone should approach the issue of politics that it may have to be tried to solve and resolve possible local mechanisms with tools. This preferential tax was once introduced to small and medium-sized businesses to promote development. Question: It has completely solved its problem, and there was no need for it. As a result, we have objective factors related to consumer prices, represented by external inflationary pressure, the risks of which are still maintained in continuity, which today contribute to the possible emergence of inflation today.
Let's give another example that testifies to it. The volume of lending to the population is constantly increasing in the loan portfolio of banks. This is mostly due to mortgage lending, which in turn is due to the need to cancel the cancellation of income tax return program.
This, in turn, derivatives leads to the growth of consumer loans. It is no coincidence that in January-August, the consumer loans increased by 31.1, mortgage loans by 26.3%. How are these interconnected? The volume of lending causes additional demand, in turn, it stimulates inflation. Increasing the increase in lending volumes, in turn, contributes to the preservation of inflation. It is no coincidence that the Central Bank has left the refinancing rate five times this year, not reduced it. The ongoing reduction today stopped, and at the announced level there is anxiety to accelerate inflation and further inflation in inflation, "our interlocutor said.
In the first 8 months of this year, Armenia's public debt increased by $ 1 billion 288 million. The citizen hesitates, the debt increases, what is my benefit and harm in this matter? The expert emphasizes that the increase of public debt is not just statistics. "This is a question of a direct impact on the life of a citizen. The continued increase in public debt has created a rather serious burden for the state budget, in the face of the debt interest and payment of principal money. In 2025, there is only a burden of $ 1 billion on the state budget on the state budget. The draft budget of 2026 is being discussed.
They talk about the continuity of public debt and the state budget. The interest will only be about 12% of the state budget expenditures. For comparison, 5.9% of the state budget expenditures will be directed to the healthcare sector, ie the service of the debt, 11-12, 5.9% to the healthcare direction.
Today, it would have been a better picture to provide social, economic policy, security and other important directions if the state budget was not under such a serious burden of debt service, "he added. He reminds that the pensions do not rise for the second year in a row.
"Let's leave the" Keshbeck ", the preaching work, however, we raise the pension. We do not humiliate the social significance of the returned amount, but it is not adequate to inflation in any way, from a social point of view, at least not completely or close to it. Population income indexing, that is, systemic, regular growths, and so on. Maybe the reason is that the state budget debt load is so much that it is simply not possible to increase or add a proper way. It is being discussed by the 2026 budget to increase social expenses by 9.6%. When you look at the opening, they are increasing, because it is not the pensions to add, but the number of social expenses is listed.
By not depriving them of their importance, the need should be noted that they are aimed at the operation, local solutions, and the action aimed at changing the systemic social image seems to be no again. Increasing public debt is a problem for a citizen in a social point of view that social expenses may not increase, because the state budget is not so able to settle, manage, and so on. Question: The citizen can say that we have economic growth, the third, fourth year, we are talking about unprecedented indicators.
These economic growth is ensured by the influence of temporary and non-inclusion factors and as a result. The citizen can say why the money is taken so much or the money taken effectively. No matter how important the social problem is serious, it is important to further increase the state debt for a longer run. There is management and management efficiency. The funds taken are redeeming old debts, we have transparency problems, related to the efficiency of the use of funds and other related to other means.
In the coming years, we have the peak of state debt service for the budget. They do not create an environment that will be confident that these problems have been solved in the coming years in the coming years, "Lilia Amirkhanyan concludes.
Lusine Arakelyan
