"Fact" daily writes:
At the January 9 session, the Armenian government approved the bill on starting the process of Armenia's EU membership.
This gave rise to quite heated discussions, and there were expected harsh reactions from Russia as well.
But first of all, let's record that within the framework of the start of this process, the RA authorities emphasize the issue of visa liberalization the most, which, to be honest, "smells" very badly of pre-election "pear".
Of course, the liberalization of visas will be positive for RA citizens in terms of traveling to Europe and touring, but, apart from the fact that it is a matter of many years, and that "depends" on the air, is it currently the most important issue?
After all, our country is facing much more serious economic, foreign political and security problems. Is the EU ready to take on the solution of these problems so that Armenia becomes a part of the structure? Let's start with the economic one. Last year's indicators show that the trade turnover with the EU countries shows decreasing trends.
How can one imagine making the transition to membership of a structure with which there is no development in economic relations?
First of all, the EU has set such regulations and standards that make it difficult to export Armenian products to the European market, or, if the export is carried out, Armenian products become uncompetitive as a result of the set requirements.
In addition, the EU constantly promises that they will invest in a number of sectors and infrastructures of Armenia's economy in order to reduce economic dependence on Russia, but they only give a few million dollars as support, which cannot have a significant economic role.
On the other hand, as a result of all this, our economic ties with Russia, or rather, our economic dependence, not only does not weaken, but also strengthens. And it is no coincidence that last year Armenia was among the ten largest trading partners of Russia.
Moreover, it is clear that Armenia benefits greatly as a result of this. It is mainly as a result of the trade circulation with Russia and the flow of capital from that country that in the last few years, Armenia has managed to register a high economic growth and give some charge to our economy.
If we conditionally accept such a situation that we would not have such rates of trade, then what steps should the EU take to ensure Armenia's economic progress? There were not even attempts of such steps, instead the conditions of economic relations became more complicated.
Pashinyan used to say that Armenia is ready to approach the EU as much as the EU is ready. But the practical realities show that the EU is not ready in any way, and the European officials just make formal statements, nothing else.
We have a comprehensive and expanded partnership agreement with the EU signed in 2017. And even all the opportunities provided by it have not been used, let alone to be able to handle the EU membership process.
We still do not know how long the negotiations will last, whether progress will be made or not, and it is questionable whether we can have any benefits. At the same time, when the RA authorities start the process of disfiguring the EU, don't they understand that it is simply incompatible with the EAEU mechanisms?
It would be different if the EAEU mechanisms were combined directly within the framework of cooperation with the EU, in which case Armenia could become a link between two important integration markets, the EU and the EAEU.
But it is clear that leaving the EAEU is completely unrealistic today, it is a different matter that some pro-Western forces are trying to get support from Europe with it, despite the fact that it may be temporary.
On the other hand, the start of the EU membership process may cause new geopolitical and security risks.
We saw that Georgia aspired to EU membership for years, but in Tbilisi they decided to postpone the negotiations on membership until 2028. And Armenia, which is connected to Russia with its security components and economic umbilical cord, can suffer huge losses, appearing in the focus of the geopolitical competition.
In connection with this, warnings are being sounded from various channels in Moscow. No matter how dissatisfied we are with the role of Russia and the CSTO, we must understand that the EU is simply unable to provide us with security guarantees in any way.
Europe has not even created security guarantees for itself, let alone for us. Of course, the authorities can try to present arguments that European observers will ensure stability at the border.
But let's take into account that not only do they not have weapons, but they are also unable to prevent border tension. Azerbaijan has repeatedly shown by its actions that it is not constrained by the circumstances of European observers.
And Aliyev recently hinted that if necessary, they will shoot at the European observers as well. On the other hand, the same Europe contributes to Azerbaijan's aggression, because European countries continue to buy a large amount of oil and gas from Azerbaijan and provide large financial flows, with which Baku can arm itself and become more aggressive.
Therefore, the Europeans should be forced to first take steps towards providing real support to Armenia, and then only try to jump in the direction of the EU.
ARTHUR KARAPETIAN
