The "Fact" daily writes: "Syria will not be the first. It is still too early to talk about the calm of the situation there. Only after some time can we determine which state will have what role in this country."
What happened in Syria cannot remain without consequence in the case of the entire Middle East. The head of the "Oskanapat" analytical center says that Syria is really important for the region, if not one of the key ones :
Now, as a matter of fact, we are witnessing the process of dismemberment of Syria, and it is important who will be able to get what from the main players of the Middle East as a result of the de facto dismemberment, first of all it concerns Turkey, Israel, Egypt and also Iran.
Let's see what kind of redistribution and rearrangement of forces will happen here, and, accordingly, it will be possible to judge the approximate direction in which the region will develop Turkey, Iran, Israel played their role, all of them were able to come to an agreement on this issue.
Therefore, it can be assumed that these arrangements will be maintained in the future, that is, they will try to achieve some kind of balance in the region. I think that it will work in the short term, but I have no doubt that the competition and conflict in the Middle East will continue in the long term for stability, many years are still needed, and I do not see it in the foreseeable future," says Melik Shahnazaryan in a conversation with "Past".
In the context of what happened in Syria, there is talk about the increasing role of Turkey in the world and in various conflicts, and about the decreasing role and authority of Iran and Russia. This fact is quite risky for Armenia. Just a few years ago, Turkey did not even have the opportunity to deal with the issue of Artsakh, and now it has a military presence in the South Caucasus On the other hand, I would not say that this is Turkey's strength, only its achievement.
In any case, no matter what they say, no matter how the Turkish authorities try to present, one thing is clear that Turkey continues to be a tool of the West in our region, also in the Middle East.
They help and use Turkey to solve various problems. They agree to that role, because their influence is really increasing. It is an increase in the general influence of the West. we are dealing with a process from which there may be threats to Armenia. In the same way, I would not say that Russia and Iran have finally lost their positions in the Middle East. I mentioned that there was an agreement, that is should testify to the fact that Russia would not have completely surrendered its positions, but should have received some things instead.
I think that "instead", Russia's share of trade, is in the post-Soviet region, primarily in Ukraine, I hope to some extent also in our region, the South Caucasus. If this hypothesis is confirmed, I think it is positive for us as a country At least the threat of genocide will be overcome in this historical period.
This is still a hypothesis. The fact that Russia is replacing the Middle East with the South Caucasus does not mean that they feel completely satisfied. It is all the same, it is a weakening for Russia, and in the future Russia will definitely see it In this case, I think that at this stage the Russians have given up their position in the Middle East in exchange for regaining their influence in the post-Soviet region," says our interlocutor. What to expect from Donald Trump's presidency? There is an opinion that a "window of opportunity" has been opened for various countries in terms of solving the problems facing them in hot spots, on the other hand, significant changes are predicted in the world with his presidency. "Trump's election as president already has a role I think the developments in the Middle East are due to this. The President of Ukraine is already talking about his willingness to end the conflict through negotiations becoming a new milestone for international politics and will have its impact. The current trends show that there is indeed an opportunity to move the conflicts from the military stage to the political, diplomatic stage. But this is such a sensitive issue that it is difficult to say that this the process can come to an end. At any moment, something may change, something may not work, and the world may turn into much more destructive and bloody wars than it is today," he emphasizes.
What impact can global changes and developments have on our region and Armenia, and what can be done to minimize damage in case of threats? :
It ranges from a new war, from entering Syunik, from the real danger of losing new territories to taking back Artsakh. There is such a range of possibilities.
Unfortunately, what will happen will be determined not by the processes taking place in our region, but by more global geopolitical developments. in order to prevent a new Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia, it is necessary, for example, to preserve the existing security mechanisms, no matter how bad or good they are.
It simply cannot be touched today, because it will open opportunities for the enemies to be more active and consistent in their policy of destroying Armenia.
It is necessary to try to restore relations with Russia and build reliable relations with Iran, because it is clear that any development and solution in the South Caucasus will be conditioned by the positions of these two countries.
"We cannot allow those countries to ignore Armenia or do harm to our country on purpose. At this time, we should try to conduct a sensible, tough foreign policy in order to prepare for the worst scenarios, hoping for the best," concludes Hrant. Melik Shahnazaryan.
