"Fact" daily writes:
in 2025 The state budget discussions are ongoing. It is obvious that our state will increase the state debt again. But on the other hand, it seems that the authorities of the day are trying to be realistic and do not predict unprecedented economic growth for the next year. Economist Suren Parsyan at the beginning of the state budget discussions reminds that the budget for any country is the main financial document, which outlines the main directions of development, priorities, social programs, their addressability, etc.
"According to the 2025 state budget, the expenditure part is planned to be 3.5 trillion drams, and the revenue part is planned to be 2.9 trillion drams, that is, we will have a deficit of approximately 600 billion drams for 2025.
I should also mention that the debt or the deficit is not a negative phenomenon if it is spent to ensure the long-term growth of the country's development and economy. , development", says Parsyan in a conversation with "Past". He emphasizes that if in 2025 let's call the budget, we can say that it is an unrealistic budget. "The authorities like to say ambitious, progressive, etc., but this is not the case. It could be ambitious if they set a figure a little higher than realistic, but they are much more than realistic set a high figure, which makes this budget unrealistic.
Unrealistic, because this same government is unable to provide the revenue part, and in addition, it is not able to fulfill the expenditure part on time, the exception is the defense expenses because they did not create such institutional capacities that would allow to ensure the performance of the budget both in terms of expenditure and income our interlocutor notes.
"This year's economic activity will decrease by about 9 percent at the end of the year, because we will have a certain recessionary situation in November-December, taking into account the fact that the gold "fever" started in November-December last year, and this provided additional growth. This growth, in fact, has decreased sharply since May 2024, when Russia removed the gold export duty and Armenia introduced the duty in parallel. As a result, the economic factors that should have provided us with additional growth are absent. If we analyze the indicators compared to last year, we will have a certain decline in the months of November-December. In my opinion, we will close this year's economic growth within seven percent percent will be quite high for the next year. We do not have additional economic growth factors, and on this basis, ensuring 5.6 percent economic growth for 2025 is again very difficult. will be unrealistic.
And the government's calculation that Amulsar will operate and it will provide additional economic activity is a very doubtful and problematic plan, which is unlikely at the moment.
Next year we will borrow about 800 billion to pay off old debts and to create new debt. We will allocate about 1.4 billion of our budget to service the national debt to increase," emphasizes the economist. He notes that there are no major economic projects in the 2025 budget, programs that will allow generating new economic activity instead of gold. "There are no such programs, and the effectiveness of state economic programs is very low, a vivid example of this is the agricultural sector, where there is only a modest economic growth of 1.8 percent. If we take into account the billions of drams that are injected into the subsidy and support programs of this sector, we can say that most of these amounts are actually falling apart. 1.8 percent is not the adequate growth that we can provide," he adds. There is an opinion that our economy is free now. is in decline.
The external factors that activate the economy are almost neutral. It seems that the international economy is not in such a good condition, on the other hand, we have unpredictability. "Starting from 2022, the economic activity of Armenia is conditioned by external factors, which are again allowed by foreign players by
Russia and the West agree that Armenia should be an intermediary country so that Russian gold and also Western equipment reach Russia. It is no coincidence that two organizations that import and sell electrical equipment appeared in this regard. it is given to the government of Armenia as a bonus. Time will tell when it will end. There are various changes among global players. A new government has been formed in the United States, etc.
The situation can change in one day, for example, the Trump administration decides to deprive Armenia of economic advantages, trying to put Russia in a bad economic situation.
Very quickly this will be reflected in our reality. Our economy cannot cope with external changes, we will have a big recession. The problem is how long these external factors will last for us, which in turn allow us to grow. : It's a matter of timing.
In my opinion, we are not in a recession at the moment, we still have carte blanche from abroad, which we can use is the fifth, but the process is underway. At the expense of Russian money, the banking system is making huge profits, also at the expense of the schemes that circulate through Armenia. As long as these opportunities exist, Armenia will maintain its growth rate, but not within the framework of the government's budget for 2025. This growth rate will be lower because we do not have the potential, the resources to ensure it," concludes Suren Parsyan.
Lusine Arakelyan
