One of the most discussed topics these days is what Donald Trump's victory promises to the world and, in general, what situation it will create in the international arena.
It is certain that the foreign policy pursued by the USA will change.
It is expected that the Trump administration will focus mainly on intra-American issues, which he touched upon in the pre-election campaign and was able to attract a large number of voters to his side and defeat the democratic candidate by a large margin.
And the first issue that worries Americans is the economy and inflation, because they are facing certain economic problems.
Therefore, Trump promises to take stimulating steps for economic growth and local business development.
Moreover, he is going to issue new drilling permits and increase oil production, as a result of which energy prices will decrease.
Another issue that Trump emphasized during his election campaign is the security of the US borders.
During the time of the Biden administration, thousands of illegal immigrants enter the US from the southern borders, straining the situation in the southern states.
According to Republicans, illegal immigrants only create problems, starting with increasing the number of crimes, and take advantage of the opportunities created by the American state without contributing to it.
Therefore, Trump plans to deport illegal migrants. Trump also managed to capitalize on the support of voters in a number of foreign policy issues.
It is no coincidence that he puts special emphasis on the fact that his administration will bring peace and stop wars through force. In particular, it refers to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
It's no secret that the Republicans, led by Trump, are against the billions of dollars in aid that are continuously provided to Ukraine.
According to them, the money of the American taxpayers is being wasted as a result of the allocation of military aid packages to Ukraine.
And these funds can be invested in the American economy, infrastructure creation, social, educational or healthcare sectors.
At the same time, Trump is pushing Ukraine to make certain concessions to Russia in order to establish a ceasefire.
As for the relations between Russia and the USA, it is difficult to expect that these relations will receive a completely positive dynamic, but the Republicans are disposed to a certain relaxation of the tension in the relations.
It is no coincidence that Trump has been an active critic of the Biden administration's sanctions policy against Russia, noting that it is causing Russia to turn its eyes to China and ally with a country that is considered the main rival of the United States in perspective and capable to challenge Washington.
As for US-China relations, it should be noted that Trump is a supporter of a stricter policy towards China. According to him, as a result of the importation of cheap Chinese goods, local producers suffer. Therefore, the new US president has promised that he will raise the customs duties on Chinese goods imported into the US.
And such a step can lead to a trade war, because China, in its turn, can raise customs duties on American goods.
After all, US-China bilateral trade reaches enormous volumes. It is no coincidence that China's congratulation to Trump emphasized the usefulness of mutual coexistence and the need to avoid confrontation.
Under the Trump regime, European countries realize that the US, focusing more on its internal problems, will leave the main burden of the weight of defense on the shoulders of NATO allies.
Trump has always raised the question of why the US should ensure the security of its European allies at its own expense, if those countries can do it on their own.
Therefore, Europe lends itself to the increase of defense costs, which it managed to avoid for years and direct large funds to the social sphere, education and healthcare.
That is why the EU officials started thinking about creating their own defense system. It is not excluded that the European countries will also face the increase of customs duties by the USA, because Trump has emphasized more than once that the Europeans also receive great benefits at the expense of the USA.
As for the Middle East, it is clear that the new US administration will be more inclined to support Israel, which in turn means that the pressure on Iran will increase.
It also comes from the logic of the continuation of Trump's policy in the first period of his tenure.
It was during his tenure that the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement signed with Iran and imposed severe sanctions on that country.
It was as a result of the active efforts of the first Trump administration that the process of normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries began. But this time, Trump has promised to stop the ongoing military operations in the Gaza Strip, as a result of which he managed to win the Arab population living in different US states to his side.
There will also be changes in the policy conducted by the US in our region.
It is clear that the Trump administration will devote less space to our region than it was during the time of Biden, when he regularly sent high officials to the South Caucasus and tried to interfere in the processes, mainly to create an anti-Russian soil. And the Republicans attribute the less involvement of the USA to the fact that they are thousands of kilometers away, and there is no need to interfere in everything that is happening in the world, let the states acting on the ground regulate their relations.
Apparently, the conduct of such a foreign policy by the United States implies that the West will withdraw to a certain extent, as a result of which the positions of local players will be strengthened.
In these conditions, Armenia should decide which of the forces operating in our region it will join.
For example, many experts say that Armenia should improve its relations with Russia, because the alternative is to come under the influence of Turkey.
However, despite this, the US factor should not be completely ignored, because that country is capable of exerting great pressure and solving major issues.
Therefore, it is necessary to work directly with the new US administration and, in general, the Republicans, especially since the representatives of that party formed a majority in the Congress.
But the current authorities of RA managed to establish contacts and work only with the democrats, whose influence on the current policy shows a decreasing trend. And now the RA authorities have found themselves in a case situation.
In this case, the main burden of working with the new regime remains on the Diaspora, or there should be a change of power in Armenia so that such figures come to power who will be able to work with the new US administration on the one hand, and on the other hand to improve relations with Russia. .
ARTHUR KARAPETIAN
