The Luys Foundation has analyzed the socio-economic developments of the Armenian economy in 2024. In January-December.
Thus, the growth rate of economic activity during the year has shown a slowing tendency due to neutralization of high economic growth factors in previous years.
The positive effects of the previous year's growth factors (to the inflow of the people of the Republic of Armenia and the capital, etc.) have provided high economic growth in 2024. At the beginning of the year, but the growth gradually slowed down in parallel to the neutralization of the effects of these factors. As a result of 2024 The EV was 8.0%, being less than 1.8 percent from last year's EV.
But in 2024 The difference between the real growth of the EPA and GDP was greater, which means that in 2024. Economic growth in 2023 There will be significantly lower than growth.
2024 The structure of the economy has continued to worsen. Summing up 2024 Economic indicators, it can be noted that the main driving forces of growth were trade (mainly due to reflection of some of the re-expression) and services (mainly in the financial sphere). This means that the share of the above-mentioned branches in the structure of the Armenian economy has increased, while the weights of the industry (without jewelry) and agriculture have decreased.
It turns out that the economy has become more dependent on the growth of temporary factors, while the role of the types of activities for long-term growth has decreased.
Negative shifts also took place in the industry, as well as export structure.
In the structure of the industry in 2024 In January-November, the share of food, drink and clothing has not yet been published in December. The weight is significantly increased by 7.1 percentage points in the same period. It is also such a situation in the export structure.
In the conditions of modest growth of economic activity and income of the population in 2024 The volume of loans increased significantly at high pace.
Mortgage and consumer loans increased by 32.9% and 33.0%, respectively. Taking into account the increase in the income of the population (in particular only 6.4% of nominal salaries and the decrease in remittances from abroad) contains risks.
