This war is not over. it is too early to talk about its end. This is how Iranian affairs expert Aram Shahnazaryan interprets the ongoing military operations between the US and Iran. Now, however, according to the expert's observation, the main target of the war will not be only the military infrastructures. the struggle is transferred to the psychological field.
According to the expert, the memorandum, which was signed weeks ago between Iran and the US, spoke about Iran's agenda. In his estimation, these were the conditions that Tehran was able to impose using the strategic advantage gained during the war.
According to him, the problem is not only the memorandum. In the context of this problem are personal and political ambitions. For exactly one year, the USA and Israel have been trying to weaken Iran by various means, but they have not achieved their ultimate goal.
And although Iran suffered heavy losses during the war: high-ranking military personnel were killed, a part of the country's military-political leadership was beheaded, important infrastructures were attacked, Shahnazaryan is convinced that all of this did not disappoint the public. The Iranian people want to take revenge on the enemy.
"An attempt was made to break the backbone of the Iranian people, but the opposite result was obtained. "The society put aside the internal political contradictions, forgot the economic grievances and united around the idea of the motherland," he says.
According to the expert's assessment, after the end of the war, it became clear that the strategic goals of Washington and Tel Aviv were not realized. According to him, Iran strengthened its position in the region by gaining strategic advantages, including the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to be of key importance for global energy security.
However, according to him, this does not mean that the tension in the region is decreasing. On the contrary, the conflict is entering a new, exhausting phase.
"I think this attrition process will continue. Such large-scale military operations, which we have already witnessed, will probably not happen in the near future, but this does not mean that the danger has disappeared," the expert notes.
Shahnazaryan reminds that during the NATO summit, Donald Trump publicly threatened to attack Iran's energy infrastructure. In response to that, the Iranian Armed Forces announced that in such a scenario, the American military bases located in the region will become their daily targets.
According to the expert, these statements prove that the parties are avoiding large-scale clashes at this stage. That is why all the countries of the region are trying to avoid a possible new war.
In the background of all this, Shahnazaryan draws attention to another, more important issue. in his view, periodic pauses in military operations can also be a calculated tactic to gradually weaken the public's resistance.
"Yes, such a scenario is completely possible. One of the targets is the psychological state of society. The goal is for people to get tired of constant uncertainty, fear and waiting, and finally demand to stop the war at any cost," he emphasizes.
And although the possibility of a large-scale war at the moment, according to him, is not great, one circumstance remains unchanged. the events of the last year have shown that this conflict develops with an unpredictable logic, and the situation can change dramatically at any moment.
Sylvie Muradyan
