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"Predictable" peace in the unpredictable world. Ara Ayvazyan

"Alternative Projects Group" presents the article of former Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazyan.

"In order to prepare for" peace ", the Armenian society is implemented in the ideological siege. The concept of "real Armenia" is based on "We do not know the world, and the world does not recognize us." In fact, the world we know has not been long, and it has become unrecognizable for everyone. Of course, it is necessary to achieve that the world or, or rather, the world order have always had their beginning and the end. The high, medium and small countries leading to the passage from this old world order to the new world order is required skillfully and wisely to drive their state's ship to a safe haven. The success of this responsible mission would be due to other factors, the conscious guide. However, such a guide does not exist. Today, even the world's "big ones" do not know how the current clash of global interests will end. The behavior of the history and the behavior of the actors involved in the current processes can be shown on the impending future and our national interests.

America from First World to "Third European"

During World War I, especially in 1917. Then, Germany could restrict its achievements in the East and choose a suitable moment to start a crushing attack on its exhausted opponents in the West, if it weren't for American intervention. Without American aid, the allies were unlikely to lose the big war, but they would not even win during that huge confrontation without Americans. The new world order formed by post-war Versalyan reflected the real ratio of forces and acted as long as the United States remained in that system. Without counterbalancing, in the person of the US, the European system would be resolved over time, which took place in the late 1930s.


The current global conflict has many parallels with World War I, especially since it has become a stray war in which none of the parties is able to win. At the same time, as in the previous century, the role of the United States remains key. The fact that the US security environment is incomparably more favorable in the world arena, gives it different opportunities in the talks. In this sense, President Trump's "strategic surprises" shock the whole world. The unpredictability of Trump means that he reserves the most flexibility in negotiations with Russia. During his election campaign, announcing a European war in Ukraine, not the American, Tramper, a message to Russia could have a separate deal with the United States, which is currently happening.

Old Europe and new Turkey

Europe, which manifested himself as a global player, suddenly realized that without its direct involvement in overcoming the US security canopy and continental challenges, it may be again confronted with traditional problems, which once destroyed the old world. Therefore, the EU is now crazy to guarantee the Atlantic Umbrella on the one hand, and on the other hand it is preparing for war against Russia. In this crisis situation, the internal disagreements of the organization are also obvious, and sometimes the centrifugal aspirations that can be strengthened over time. In this context, Erdogan's statement that only Turkey's membership in the EU may suspend the continued loss of the power and influence of the European block. It is very suspicious that the "deal" proposed by Ankara will be successful, but it is undeniable that Turkey's strategic importance has greatly increased for Europe. In such circumstances, it was naive to pursue Turkey-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan-Azerbaijan's absorption, especially if it benefits Russia from the South Caucasus.

Russia's reinterpretations

Russia is in the continuous process of reinterpreting relations with the rest of the world, at the same time confronted with the difficult challenges of building a healthy and modern economy and expand its external influence. The experience of previous years showed how much the situation of Moscow was justified and how contributed to the strengthening of its position. Russia's worldview change (Eurasianism) has been called to serve its external and security priorities in the last 1.5 decade. The implementation of this ideology neutralized the possible threats and relieved the economic burden of Moscow in the short-term stage, but also newly emphasized the need for strategic allies. As a result of the crisis in Ukraine, Moscow lost to its traditional positions in the Middle Ages (South Caucasus and Central Asia) and the Middle East (Syria). In new conditions, when the prospects for recharge relations with the United States are being outlined, where the borders of Russia's vital interests are underway, and how long the Armenian-Russian strategic partnership is, of course, it must be modernized on the basics of mutual benefit. In these conditions, official Yerevan announces the end of the negotiations on the "Peace Agreement" with Baku. These agreements, even if they are signed, are still dead, because our neighbor is not going to be a vibrant state, which will be completely dependent on Baku and Ankara's will.

We are not already recognized

As for the fact that the world does not know us, it should be noted that this assertion is true. We have become unrecognizable. The world recognized us and respected us until we performed in the international arena, as a strategic and civilized function. Today, the Armenia-Artsakh-Diaspora trinity remained in the past. We left Artsakh, in fact leaving ourselves. Escape from war of war, we immersed in an endless nightmare. As a result, we lost respect for our nation, respect for each other, respect for us. What happened and continues to happen is not about us. After the registration of its own "I" of states and nations is the problem of post-war elites, inside which the fore, the responsibility of their own mission and the liability of the supranslation must prevail. The time has matured to rediscover us, our inner strength, our faith and dignity. Then the world will recognize us again.

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