"Fact" daily writes:
According to many experts, the oppositionists aiming to finally free Armenia from the current authorities should have at least two imperatives: to soberly assess the realities, their own capabilities and strengths, and to do everything in order not to allow voters' votes to be pulverized. In this case, we are mostly talking about those forces, circles, figures, which are positioned as clearly anti-establishment, but which in reality will predictably receive a maximum of 1-2 votes, in partial cases, maybe 3 percent. If such forces go to the elections separately, it will work only in favor of Nikol Pashinyan and CP.
The separate participation of such forces with small percentages will only lead to the fact that the votes of the electorate with an anti-establishment sentiment are reduced to dust. And that is beneficial exclusively to the current government, that is, Pashinyan and his CP. In general, there are several problems facing the opposition forces in connection with the upcoming elections, and all of them are very important. It is even more vital that as clear and mutually acceptable solutions as possible are found. The first challenge is to get as many voters as possible to vote. If the turnout remains at or below 50 percent, the chances of re-establishment of power will increase. Conversely, if it is possible to motivate as many people as possible and the participation rate exceeds the threshold of 60 percent, then the possibility of a change of power will increase. The second problem is a little more complicated. how to make sure that the protestant sentiments of the public and the voices of the activated voters do not become dust, but are manifested, so to speak, consolidated? In other words, how to achieve the fact that the votes of the anti-government public are distributed by free voting between 3-4 real opposition forces and alliances with a real chance of entering the parliament and, of course, they do not become dusty.
In the end, it should be understood by the voters that a vote given in favor of some exotic force or non-transitory force "for the sake of passion" or "to appear original" will mean voting directly for Pashinyan, even though that voter threw the TV out of the window because of the latter and not to hear his voice. But first of all, political forces, parties, party figures and propagandists have to deal with both one and the other problem. By the way, about the parties with slightly axiomatic formulations. Whenever a political force is formed, its main task is to implement the program based on the preferred ideology. And that's why any force strives to come to power. In democratic systems, the opportunity for this is elections. In other words, any power participates in the elections, striving to come to power, which is quite natural. Similarly, the statements of all powers and figures that they want to come to power and have the opportunity to do so are natural. That's according to the rules of the genre. If anyone won't say that he entered the election campaign to lose, to take the second place from the end. Any power that participates in the electoral struggle must strive to come to power. This, as it is said, under standard conditions and also according to the alphabet of political science and political struggle. But first, it is a non-standard situation in Armenia.
And that says a lot. The real opposition forces declare that their goal is to dethrone Nikol Pashinyan or simply deprive the CP of power. But here too there are significant nuances. And this is already the second "but". desires, aspirations and goals are one thing, the ability and need to take reality into account, to adequately perceive reality and one's own capabilities, and to evaluate it are another. Especially a real, realistic assessment of one's own capabilities will not hinder anyone in Armenia. It is obvious that in Armenia today there are at most political forces counted on the fingers of one hand, which are able to overcome the transient threshold independently. We are not talking about getting to power yet. The number of those able to take power individually, without forming a coalition, is smaller. And we don't particularly want to mention any force by name.
Names are not the issue. It's about a phenomenon and a problem. The important thing here is to solve the problem. And since there is already talk of forming alliances, it is obvious that the political force that will soberly assess the realities and its chances to overcome the temporary threshold should join the departure from the opposition blocs. We have already mentioned that participating separately in such a case, taking 1 or 2 percent of the votes, will only mean pouring water into the government's mill, contributing to the pulverization of votes, and this is beneficial only to Pashinyan and CP. It is worth noting, especially in relation to the forces with small or limited resources, figures with 1, 2, 3 percent votes. Public aspirations to rid the country of KP are certainly a good thing, but no one has yet managed to jump over their heads. It is necessary to look at the reality, face that reality and draw adequate conclusions. In this matter, we think, so to speak, the "big ones" also have something to do.
It would not be bad for them to be the initiators of unification and consolidation of forces. It will solve two problems at once. first, it will become clear that all or most of them are really ready to cooperate and are actually cooperating to free the country from Pashinyan rule. In addition, by getting involved with the departure from the alliances that have a real chance to enter the parliament and form the government, the representatives of the above-mentioned small forces will be much more intense and active. After all, it's one thing to enter the fray knowing that getting serious percentages is a problem, and quite another to find yourself fighting as part of an alliance with a chance to take second, third, and possibly even first place. In short, any minor participation outside the major poles (we are not talking about the satellite forces of the government, but those who act as real opposition) will be a direct support to the current authorities...
PS - Yes, and the most important thing that the main opposition poles should ensure is never, under any circumstances, not to "roll the barrel" on each other, that is, not to attack each other. At least we can be united in this issue. We emphasize this especially, because now in some cases targeting of opposition forces by opposition forces is clearly observed. At least for 5 months it is necessary to put aside mutual intolerance, refrain from this or that force, from the habit of "biting" the figure in the hope of getting 0.000001 percent more votes.
ARMEN HAKOBYAN
Details in today's issue of "Past" daily
