"Fact" daily writes:
While the authorities continue to bow to the possibility of leaving the EAEU and economic cooperation with the EU, experts warn about possible dangers.
And if these dangers become real, how quickly will our society feel their consequences?
MP of the National Assembly "Armenia" faction, economist Tadevos Avetisyan notes that the economic interaction with the EAEU is of vital importance for the socio-economic system of our country.
"The strike on a vital direction cannot be justified in any way, if we exclude the narrow political interest of the government, that is, they make some curtseys arising from their narrow political interest, but it has absolutely nothing to do with our real sustainable development interests. What? They offer nothing.
Our people will immediately feel the social and economic consequences. Under this government, our economic dependence on the same EAEU member states has almost doubled, that is, this vital importance has increased approximately twice during their time, and the interaction with the EU member or other developed countries, the United States, etc. , in fact, has significantly decreased.
We had a decrease there almost twice.
They promised to diversify our foreign economic relations. Diversification means: first, let our cooperation with EAEU grow as much as it has potential, because it benefits every citizen of the Republic of Armenia and our collective economy.
On the other hand, let it develop, but develop cooperation with EU member states faster.
Why was Armenia's export to the EU significantly reduced last year, why was the turnover reduced?
Our exports to the United States have decreased by 40 percent, is this a consequence of incompetent management, ignoring the promises made and being guided by populist statements?
It turns out that our country can skillfully interact with various economic structures for the sake of the development of Armenia's economy, so why do they always choose the "either-or" option?
"This problematic "either-or" approach was brought to our agenda, to our country during the reign of these authorities.
Look, neighboring Georgia, not being a member of the EAEU, even having conflict relations with the Russian Federation, since 2022 due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, was able to completely appropriate the positive factors for our region.
Smartly, guided by the national interest of his country, he was able to ensure economic growth close to double digits and more, almost as much as the Republic of Armenia, which is a member country of EAEU and is considered a strategic ally of Russia.
He also continued his interaction with the rest of the geographical areas.This is a classic example of a state several kilometers away.
What prevented us from taking advantage of the EAEU opportunities, especially since our economic activity had significantly increased, which, by the way, these authorities have nothing to do with, to capitalize on it in the direction of diversifying our economy, that is, to make it serve other geographical areas. directions for economic interaction, development and investments.
After all, it is not only trade. Foreign investments, including direct investments, are leaving the Republic of Armenia, that is, less has come than gone, capital is actually "running away".
Here, if we want positive indicators, we take the Russian Federation again, we had an increase in the net flow of foreign investments in the amount of about 50 million dollars.
Now this is the situation: if they are unable to provide a security environment, also from the point of view of economic security, the foreign direct investments of the United States of America in our country, is it the fault of Armenia's membership in EAEU?
Let's say the manufacturer exports his arbitrary product to the Russian market, is able to sell it on the EAEU market, what prevents him from increasing the geography and volume of his sales?
It's economic logic. Exporters work, produce to sell a lot, get a lot of profit. If there is a place where they can sell more of their products, why shouldn't they?
But what is the current situation, when they put it under attack, and in the case of this serious geopolitical and also economic security challenge, what answer will they give to greenhouse economies?
More than a quarter of our exports go to that market, that's a serious number, that is, in just ten months of last year, we had more than three billion dollars in exports, which is a significant part of the GDP of the same period, about 14 percent.
I'm talking only about exports, we also import products of strategic importance.
They are energy resources, food security products. Where did they find those alternatives or opportunities that make such awkward moves in this already fragile economic situation," our interlocutor points out.
Is it possible that in this way there is room for Azerbaijani gas and Turkish products?
"Which Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijan that subjected the people of the Artsakh Republic to genocide and forcibly displaced them, the Azerbaijan that occupied 200 square kilometers of the sovereign territories of the Republic of Armenia, threatens every day with a new invasion and a new military escalation, or the Azerbaijan that For years, with its bellicose rhetoric and actions, it has also completely blocked our economic system together with its senior partner, Turkey.
Does anyone think that the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem, having military dominance in this region, includes the developing Republic of Armenia in its long-term plans?
Any of their short-term and long-term plans, if they concern the region, begin and end with the abolition of Armenia's sovereignty, the annihilation of the Armenian people.
You have to somehow oppose human and historical logic and historical justice in order to make such claims, because the reality is completely different," Tadevos Avetisyan concludes.
Lusine Arakelyan
