The Ministry of Economy has set a target of ensuring 6 percent or more economic growth in 2025, more than the forecast based on the budget law (5.1 percent).
In an interview with “Armenpress”, Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan stated this, referring to economic developments, a possible decrease in the export rate, the combination of Armenia’s possible membership in the EU with membership in the EAEU, economic relations within the framework of the Armenia-US Strategic Partnership Document, and other issues. The GDP indicators for 2024 have not yet been summarized. According to the data for the 9th quarter, economic growth is 6 percent.“We recorded better indicators in the last quarter, especially in December, than was predicted. The peak periods of gold export and re-export in November-December 2023 were, and ensuring growth compared to those months was a bit unbelievable for many. It is considered "something like "heroism", because it is very difficult to ensure growth in large numbers. We really had difficulties in November, only 1.5 percent growth in economic activity was ensured, but already in December we had a 4.7 percent growth in economic activity. Certain adjustments were made in the economy by the Statistical Committee, and we summed up the year with an 8 percent growth in economic activity," said Papoyan.
According to the minister, by the results of 2024, GDP will exceed 10 trillion drams, it will be within the framework of 10 trillion 200 billion. "We predict that by the results of 2024 we will have 6 percent economic growth, that is, more than was planned for 2024 at the end of the year," he added.
The 2025 budget law was based on 5.1 percent economic growth forecast. “But we have set ourselves a target of 6 percent or more economic growth. The team of the Ministry of Economy has never reconciled and cannot reconcile with the so-called reality. We always strive to achieve higher economic growth than that reality thanks to our efforts. I must note with pleasure that in recent years the Ministry of Economy has always succeeded in this, everyone has said one number, but in the end it was higher.
In this regard, 2025 is no exception for us. We have set a higher target for ourselves than the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and international partners predict. And we will direct our efforts in that direction,” said Papoyan. He emphasized that the team of the Ministry of Economy comes to work every day with the goal that the target is not 5.1 percent, the target is 6 percent or higher growth. Referring to the structure of economic growth, the minister expressed confidence that in 2025 the highest growth in construction will continue, but more with modest indicators, within 6.2 percent. Although, due to the termination of the income tax refund program in Yerevan, the growth rates of 2024 will not be maintained, since the growth was double-digit in both 2024 and 2023.
According to the minister, the pace will decrease, but the volumes will remain large. About 5.2 percent growth is expected in the industry and services sector. “This means that we are entering the page of qualitative growth. When we talk about industry and services, they are, in fact, exportable sectors. And growth there is very important,” the minister noted.
He added that it is preferable to have balanced, stable growth, not based on 1-2 sectors. “It is very important,"so that we enter a phase of stable economic growth. A phase of stable economic growth gives us the opportunity to pursue stable policies.
It is more preferable to have, let's say, an average growth of 5 percent for 3 years than to have, let's say, a conditional, 15 percent growth one year, no growth the next year, then 10 percent," Papoyan said, emphasizing the importance of internal diversification of the economy, when growth does not depend on only one sector.
Referring to the concern voiced by various economists that growth in the economy, especially export growth, has been mainly conditioned by gold exports, and that a major decline will be recorded due to the exit of this factor, Papoyan said.
“Yes, in 2023, the share of gold re-exports was also quite large in numerical terms. However, in 2024, our exports without gold were higher than in 2023. When we remove the gold factor, we have exports of 7 billion.”
According to him, in 2025, exports are expected to decrease in absolute numerical values, but they will decrease not due to a decrease in goods traditionally exported from Armenia, but precisely due to a decrease in gold re-exports.
The minister emphasized that this was a temporary factor, and the Armenian economy has never relied on it.
In his opinion, the growth of previous years was not mainly due to gold re-export indicators. “It provides an indicator of economic activity, but its impact on economic growth tends to be very low. By and large, neither its large number had an impact on GDP, nor its decrease had an impact. "
Referring to certain processes initiated in Armenia regarding its accession to the EU and the question of whether it is possible to combine the EAEU with the EU, Papoyan said: "The very combination is difficult to imagine.
I do not think that such a mechanism exists. The problem lies elsewhere,At the moment, there is no issue of leaving the EAEU on the agenda. We do not have such an agenda item and continue to actively work with our partners on all EAEU platforms. In parallel with this, there is a civil initiative that is in the parliament (ed. The RA National Assembly adopted the bill in the first reading). And the government, sorry, could not help but give a positive conclusion, since 50 thousand of our citizens have come forward with such an initiative.
But this is a completely different process, it is not like this process intersects with current realities in the short or medium term." The Minister repeated that there is no agenda for leaving the EAEU in the Armenian government. "But at the same time, the Prime Minister concluded his speech in the European Parliament in 2023 with the following sentence: Armenia is ready to be as close to the EU as the EU deems necessary.
In other words, we are part of European civilization, we have European aspirations. But it is a very long process, it is not a one-sided process, it depends on many circumstances," he noted. Papoyan:
Armenia is taking practical steps to comply with the EU market and standards.
Papoyan reminded that a laboratory was opened at the end of 2024, and relevant capacities will also be created in the first half of 2025. “In parallel, we are modernizing our economy at a fairly high pace. All our competitive businesses are taking advantage of the economic modernization program.
Most of them are replacing outdated equipment from the 90s and 2000s with modern technologies from different countries.
This is also very important for moving towards that market,” the Minister of Economy detailed.
According to the Minister, there are already many products that meet the highest European standards,the problem is often in quantity. "Our target is to produce economically complex goods in all sectors.
Ultimately, we must transform from a country of mineral production into a country of exporting economically complex goods," said Papoyan. The Minister also touched upon the Armenia-US strategic partnership document and its possible economic results.
