The "Fact" daily writes. After the Artsakh war 2020, the layout of forces in our region has changed. If in the past the South Caucasus was considered Russia's influence zone, Russian positions have significantly weakened, and instead of it has increased Turkey's influence.
Turkish capital in Georgia plays a significant role in economy, on the other hand, there are large Turkish-Azerbaijani projects, such as Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the South Gas Corridor (SGC) project, aimed at Europe from the Caspian Sea to Europe. Move natural gas bypassing Russia.
And in recent years, Turkey has been consistently established in Azerbaijan, and conditions are created for the formation of a universal integration field. Regular joint Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises are being carried out regularly. And Turkey imports the NATO model of its army to Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, the process of deepening political, economic and cultural cooperation is advanced, which is from the slogan "One Nation, two states". The scope of cooperation is also expanded within the framework of the Organization of Turkic states. The Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem demands the so-called "Zangezur corridor" for the further deepening of the integration process and implementing pan-turtar programs.
In fact, Turkey is the only state that has the biggest influence on Azerbaijan.
Russia's influence on Azerbaijan is weakening, although in a number of cases Azerbaijan is trying to show that relations with Russia are developing dynamically. At the same time, Russia does not have large leverage to influence Azerbaijan, given that the country is not a member of the CSTO and the EAEA. in the use of influence;
But after the occupation of Artsakh and the departure of peacekeepers, that lever lost his power. Moreover, Russia depends on Azerbaijan in a number of directions. For example, data is published that Russian gas under the name of the Azerbaijani appears in Europe.
Under these conditions, Baku's ambitions are increasing, which is also manifested by aggressive policy and ambitions against Armenia. And we should not forget that only the only Russian military base in the South Caucasus, and Armenia that can be Russia's regional support, despite the rumors that Armenia is inclined to the west.
In other words, if Russia lost its influence in Armenia, that reality can lead to Russia's out of the South Caucasus. Russia is currently focused on the battle in Ukraine. But neglect of the Turkish factor in the direction of the South Caucasus can have catastrophic consequences for that country.
Moscow has to take place in Syria when Turkey's support in that country has taken power, failing to replace Russian military bases in Syria with Turkish-Azerbaijani agenda and pressure on Armenia. As a result, Armenia will once appear under Turkish influence, and the issue of bringing the Russian military base is concrete. Although it is necessary to consider that, in the case of the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" project, Russia will face serious problems with the North Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia's relations, then the Azerbaijani propaganda against Russia is working on the motives, as it operates against Armenia.
In particular, a number of Azeri newsletters say that Russia has killed Azerbaijani "historical lands" to which they have lived "millennia". Azerbaijan intends to appeal to the International Court of Justice in Aktau, as Aliyev is dissatisfied that Russia has not punished the culprits and did not provide compensation.
In this context, Baku is not only slandled in Russia, but also states that they are going to stop the activities of the Russian House.
There was a report on Azerbaijani TV channels, which stated that there was a "spy's nest," separatist's nest "."
The Azerbaijani side also uses the fact that Ilham Aliyev's state plane, Baku-1, has faced a unofficial summit of the CIS leaders in St. Petersburg. Perhaps the Russian side. In his turn, he began to show Azerbaijan to pay a tooth.
Moreover, some media outlets have been openly warning that if Baku has continued pressure on the Kremlin, she endangers not only losing its support, but also to become a bargaining subject in a great geopolitical game. But many Russian experts believe that they need to act faster and show Azerbaijan its place until the situation has reached the extreme.
Russia must cooperate with the Armenian side and strengthen its support to Armenia to prevent such a scenario. Perhaps, in the case of the newly appointed President of the United States, the initiative of Trump is possible that military operations in Ukraine are standing.
Moscow will be able to spend time for the South Caucasus. Terrarur Karapetyan
