The situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, but according to Iran expert Aram Shahnazaryan, the region is in a phase of uncertainty, where military operations are stopped, but the problems underlying the conflict are not resolved. In other words, the conflict between the United States and Iran is in the logic of an endless war.
"Only the fire has stopped, this is not a ceasefire regime," Shahnazaryan says, emphasizing that it is this uncertainty that makes the situation more dangerous. According to him, the negotiation process has actually been stopped.
Despite the mediators' attempts to bring the parties back to the negotiating table, Iran continues to maintain its position and is not going to revise it in the face of US threats. According to the expert, this situation creates an extremely fragile balance, which can be broken at any moment and turn into a new, larger-scale war.
Moreover, it is not only about the resumption of military operations in certain parts of the Middle East. In case of a new escalation, the conflict can theoretically cover larger areas. At the same time, according to the expert, the current policy of the United States is somewhat different from the statements made at the beginning of the war. At the beginning of the war, the idea was circulated in Washington and Israel that the military operations would last for several days, the military-political leadership of Iran would lose its ability to govern, there would be a change of power in the country, and Iran would have to give up its nuclear and missile programs.
However, in the context of all this, let's state that none of these calculations were fully realized. not only did the Iranian government not collapse, but also, according to the expert, as a result of the war, Iranians became more united. Earlier talks about the change of power are no longer in the center of the agenda. Instead, the issue of opening the Strait of Hormuz has become a priority, and Iran is trying to dictate its own rules of the game in this matter as well. According to Shahnazaryan, this circumstance shows that the continuation of military operations for the United States may contain greater risks than expected at the beginning.
As for the upcoming elections in the USA, according to the expert, entering into a new, larger-scale war could become a serious political risk for Donald Trump. Especially when the war in Gaza has not yet been resolved, the Russian-Ukrainian war is still ongoing. According to Shahnazaryan, one of Trump's initial calculations could be to strengthen his own positions through quick military success.
However, the developments of the war showed the opposite picture. If at the beginning of the war there was talk of the disintegration of Iran's military and political system, change of power, destruction of nuclear and missile programs, today the agenda has changed significantly. In the background of all this, Shahnazaryan considers it unlikely that Washington will go to a full-scale war before the upcoming elections in the United States. He considers it more likely to maintain uncertainty and controllable tension.
At the same time, Shahnazaryan warns that the unpredictability of this conflict does not allow us to rule out any scenario with certainty.
Sylvie Muradyan
