The "Fact" daily writes:
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, due to external factors, Armenia's economy began to record high growth rates. But since the positive effect of artful factors is gradually passed, it also reflects on Armenia's economic growth image.
At the same time, the image registered in 2024 is less than 1.8 percentage points in 2023.
And this year it is expected that economic growth will decrease more. Many economists are convinced that Armenia's economy is returning to its true state when it is barely crawling.
Some specialized structures even predict that Armenia's economic growth in 2025 will be 5% or lower. Despite even such bad predictions, it is not ruled out that Armenia will face more serious problems with economic growth this year.
In fact, geopolitical factors have contributed to Armenia's high economic growth, so they can have the opposite impact, creating conditions for the grapple growth.
Especially this year, significant geopolitical changes are made this year, when trade wars and severe economic competition become "normal", the supply chains are disrupted, and the inflation background is expanded at the global level.
In addition, inflation in partner countries does not stop, and the rise in prices of the products and services characterized by harsh prices remains significant high since the target level.
From this point of view, it should be taken into account that Armenia's economy is closely intertwined with Russia's economy.
And if there are serious problems in the Russian economy, which is unbelievable, due to various factors, the situation will immediately be felt on Armenia's economy.
It is no coincidence that even the chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia admits that in 2025. In the first quarter of Armenia, the risks of economic growth in the world in the world are maintained in general.
On the other hand, so that Armenia can maintain its economic growth, it is necessary for the structure of the economy to have a healthy pillar, which could be formed in two years, but it was not formed. Moreover, the Luys Foundation, 2024 The analysis of socio-economic developments in the Armenian economy of Judges shows that the structure of our economy continues to worsen.
The rates registered last year show that the growth of economic activity was mainly due to the growth of trade and services, the benefits of which amounted to 7.3 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively.
Before the share of these branches, the structure of the Armenian economy has increased, the weights of the industry (without jewelry) and agriculture has decreased.
The industry continues to shrink for a year, instead of January 1.6, reaching 1 percentage point. At the same time, it was mainly due to the growth rate of the processing industry, which continued to slow down.
In the field of agriculture, it is true that last year a 1.6% increase was registered last year, but this rate is completely insufficient, taking into account the inclusion of this field, the inclusion of the sphere and the agricultural potential of Armenia.
Exports in turn are significantly reduced. In particular, in December 2024, exports decreased by 48.6% compared to the same month last year, as a result of which the accumulative growth slowed out 53.1% in January, on January 74.3%.
Such a picture is also conditioned by the fact that the increase in exports in January last year continues to be exported to jewelry and precious stones, and when exports to this sub-officer stopped, the declining situation became visible.
In fact, on the one hand, the diversification of exports for Armenia remains a serious problem, and on the other hand, dependence on the re-export. And for the solution of these two problems, first of all, it is necessary to create grounds for the organization of production and recover the structure of the economy.
Arsen Sahakyan
