"Fact" daily writes:
After the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war dealt the second powerful blow to the world economy. And Western sanctions against Russia have significantly affected supply chains.
It seemed that the sanctions against Russia will have a negative impact on Armenia's economy as well, as happened in 2014, but this time the opposite process took place, Armenia's economy began to take advantage of the new international situation.
The problem is that the importance of Armenia as a transit country became more important, on the one hand, ensuring the flow of Western equipment to Russia, and on the other hand, the export of Russian raw materials to foreign markets, as a result of which Armenia's economy is still growing.
But during these three years, our economy has become significantly dependent on the influence of endogenous factors. And they are very deceptive and can be changed at any moment.
For example, when strict measures are taken from the West to stop Armenia from playing the role of a transit zone, the Armenian economy may simply sink. Or, Russia may resort to certain restrictive measures, and the Armenian economy will receive a strong blow.
The problem is that over the years, the country's internal economic potential has not been formed, so that Armenian products and services have their place in the markets of different countries at the same time.
In these conditions, since April, the export of jewelry has become the main driving force of Armenia's economy, but it is not at the expense of local potential, but raw materials are imported from Russia and then re-exported under the name of Armenian products. According to the data of the Customs Service of Armenia, 64% of the 4.1 billion dollars worth of gold (59 tons) exported from Armenia in the first half of 2024 was exported to the United Arab Emirates, and the rest to Hong Kong and China.
However, recently, the export of jewelry products shows decreasing trends.
And if we add to that the fact that negative trends are being registered in some areas of the economy, then the picture may gradually become gloomy.
It is no coincidence that the high growth rate of the industry, which started in November of last year, has started to slow down sharply since April, mainly due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the production of jewelry products and basic metals.
Moreover, the analysis of the implementation of the state budget for the first nine months of this year by the "Luys" Foundation shows that without considering the sub-sector "production of basic metals", we can see that the industrial sector experienced a decline of 0.4% in January-September. :
It is noteworthy that since May of this year, in general, the growth rates of export and import have slowed down, mainly due to the sharp reduction in the volume of re-export of gold.
The slowdown in economic growth is also significant. According to statistical data, in 2024 in the first quarter it was 6.6% compared to 11.8% in the same period last year, in the second quarter it was 6.4% compared to 9.3% in the same period last year, and in the third quarter, according to preliminary data , is 5.2% compared to 7.4% in the same period last year.
A significant slowdown in economic activity is indeed a cause for concern, as this rate may lead to an economic recession at some point.
And instead of making stimulating injections for the economy, the government tightens the tax policy, complicating the activities of businessmen. As a result of this, conditions are created for the prices of Armenian services and goods to rise and they become less competitive.
Such harsh actions of the government are due to the fact that a gap has appeared in the budget as a result of a sharp decrease in revenues.
The calculations made in the analysis of the "Luys" Foundation show that the growth rate of budget revenues decreased by 2.3 times compared to 13.8% recorded in the nine months of the previous year. Compared to the revised plan for 9 months of this year, the total and tax revenues of the budget were underachieved by 6.4 and 7.8 percent, respectively.
If in the past, Pashinyan's favorite announcements at the government meetings were necessarily announcing the arrival of record amounts of money to the state budget, now the situation is so worrying that he not only avoids touching this topic in every possible way, but also has to invent some topics to talk about, for example, " About the "Rama" of GAZ 66.
ARSEN SAHAKYAN
