"Fact" daily writes:
The year has just begun, and some directions of regional developments are already being outlined. Aliyev started threatening Armenia in his press conference.
And the substantive part of aggressive rhetoric can be divided into several parts. The first refers to the fact that Armenia should not acquire weapons, because it creates a "threat" for Azerbaijan.
This demand includes the fact that Armenia should not have a normal army and should actually disarm, which means the neutralization of Armenia as a regional factor. On the other hand, Pashinyan says that they are proposing to create an international arms control mechanism.
Naturally, Azerbaijan will not agree to the arms control mechanism, just as it does not agree to the proposal to create a mechanism to investigate border incidents.
Azerbaijan just needs to start a military aggression under the name of starting the disarmament process of Armenia. The other demand concerns the so-called "Zangezur Corridor", and Aliyev makes it clear that Armenia is a barrier between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and if Yerevan does not provide this corridor peacefully, they will take it by military force.
The idea of the corridor stems from the pan-Turkish plans, which should enable Turkey to connect by land with Azerbaijan and then with Central Asian Turkic-speaking countries.
It is true that Turkey connects with Azerbaijan through railways and roads passing through Georgia, as well as highways passing through Iran, but the issue here is to ensure a direct land connection with Azerbaijan.
But the Turkish-Azerbaijani plans include not only the road through Armenia and its control, but also the occupation of the territory of Armenia itself.
It is no coincidence that the President of Azerbaijan demanded that Armenia should ensure the so-called "return of West Azerbaijanis" by starting negotiations with representatives of their community.
And the activation of this topic, of course, implies that Azerbaijan pursues the goals of settling the territories of Armenia with specific Azerbaijanis, so that in the future, Turkey and Azerbaijan will be connected to each other by the ethnic Turkic element and the Armenians will not form a geographical barrier.
It is a different matter that the RA authorities in Armenia mislead people that they are moving in the path of building peace. And within its framework, the decision that demarcation will continue along the entire border with Azerbaijan is presented.
But Azerbaijan does not want to get everything at once, but gradually. And as a result of border demarcation, the Azerbaijani side can improve its positions, get enclaves, thereby creating communication and infrastructure problems for Armenia.
And the clarification and demarcation of the border is not an obstacle for Azerbaijan, because they can always find excuses to undertake new aggression, especially by manipulating the issue of the return of "West Azerbaijanis".
For example, Armenia can raise the issue of the return of not only Artsakh residents, but also Armenians from Baku, Sumgait, Dashtai Artsakh and other settlements. The authorities of the Republic of Armenia remain silent not only in this direction, but also the topic of the prisoners remains largely unresponsive.
And when there are court verdicts in possible cases, and the representatives of Artsakh's military-political leadership remain in prison, it is not excluded that Azerbaijan may prosecute other figures related to Artsakh and declare an international investigation.
Apart from that, under the threat of military invasion, Azerbaijan can demand to hand over the people who contributed a lot to the defense of Artsakh.
On the other hand, there are no steps taken by Armenia to take advantage of favorable external circumstances. After the downing of the Azerbaijani plane, the relations between Baku and Moscow significantly worsened, which was especially related to Aliyev's accusations, which he demands to punish the guilty and provide compensation.
It is necessary to take into account the fact that after the expected ceasefire in Ukraine and the cessation of hostilities, Russia will have the opportunity to focus on the South Caucasus.
In perspective, as Azerbaijan and Turkey behave with Armenia, they will behave with Iran and Russia in the same way. We witnessed how the forces supported by Turkey in Syria drove out Russia and Iran. they will try to do the same not only in the South Caucasus, but also in the territory of Russia and Iran itself.
ARTHUR KARAPETIAN
