Azerbaijani scholar Tatevik Hayrapetyan writes:
"The lion's share of Aliyev's New Year's message was, of course, about threatening Armenia, I guess they were directed at "real" Armenia. In particular, Aliyev said: "I think that Armenia's large-scale arms campaign is another source of threat for the region. If we mention the most worrying moment for us this year, of course, it would be the armament of Armenia.
This has no logical explanation. Armenia faced a complete fiasco with its aggressive policy. Their military defeats in 2020 and then in 2023 should have shown which is the right path. We tried to do this and we continue our efforts to this day. Both in my official statements and during our negotiations with the Armenian side, I have repeatedly urged them to stay away from this dangerous path.
They will not be supported by foreign circles and foreign countries that incite and incite to attack Azerbaijan again. They simply won't be able to do it. No power in this region can compete with us militarily. Therefore, let me say again, it is not too late for them to turn back from this dangerous path. The South Caucasus should be a region of peace, security and cooperation.
The large-scale and rapid militarization of Armenia, the supply of lethal weapons can disrupt this peace, the possible peace. I should mention one more thing. Azerbaijan will not be a mere observer. 30 years of occupation and destruction, the destruction of Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur, the Khojaly genocide, the fact that one million of our compatriots became refugees and displaced because of Armenia, will never be erased from our memory. We will never forget this. Armenia's policy, its aggressive nature, should always be taken into account.
Therefore, once again I am obliged to warn the leadership of Armenia to refrain from this dangerous path. Moreover, they are not able to compete with us neither militarily nor in any other arena...". Apart from the undisguised threats, Aliyev once again refers to the imaginary states that are allegedly preparing Armenia for war against Azerbaijan. The facts are completely the opposite, it is Azerbaijan that conducts dozens of military exercises, actively works on increasing and strengthening the Special Purpose Forces, buys a large number of weapons, and even calls the territory of "real" Armenia "Western Azerbaijan".
Everything starts with propaganda, the role of which cannot be underestimated. At the same time, Aliyev is actually trying to act as a state that has no rival militarily in the region, which, to put it mildly, is a bit surprising. In fact, with this speech, Aliyev once again admits that he is not interested in stability and peace, he always needs enemies and competitors, if only to maintain his own dictatorial regime.
