If Assad had left during the still peaceful Arab uprisings of 2011, there would not have been the civil war that destroyed the country, there would not have been about 600 thousand victims, destroyed cities, 4-5 million refugees, 6-7 million internally displaced people.
If there was no criminal adventure of Saakashvili in 2008, the Russian-Georgian war would not have happened, so much blood would not have been spilled, there would not have been any losses. In 2024, the world has changed so much that Georgia has serious opportunities to peacefully restore its cooperation, and perhaps also its influence, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
If Nikol had left in 2021, there would be an Armenian Artsakh today and external threats would be significantly weakened. We would have a different reality.
If Zelensky left or was removed in 2022 (or earlier), the war would have stopped very quickly, there would not have been millions of victims, the destroyed country, tens of millions of refugees and displaced persons. But Assad left in 2024, leaving ruins, widespread death and tragedy for millions of families.
Zelensky will probably go in 2025-2026, leaving a ruined country, endless death and tragedy. And in the next decade, as a result of the change of the elites of the two countries, Ukraine will probably peacefully find options for coexistence in a large part of the lost and turned into battlefield territories.
The role of individuals in the life of states is enormous, but they eventually leave, the only question is the extent of the destruction and pain they left during their stay, the price of their stay. If the Armenian people make the right choice in 2025-2026, and the new authorities are truly new, then Armenia will remain as a state, and in the coming decade, the Armenian Artsakh will have a chance to peacefully recover under the new regional realities.
Vahe Hovhannisyan
Alternative projects group
