"Luys" Foundation analyzed the socio-economic developments of the RA economy in 2024. in January-October.
"The growth rate of economic activity continued to slow down, registering the lowest rate of this year in October - 4.2%, which is about 2.8 percentage points lower than the rate of the previous month.
As a result, the January-October growth slowed down compared to the previous month's cumulative index. Taking into account the high base at the end of last year, TAC will continue to slow down in the next, last two months of the current year.
The growth of industry and export is based on factors that have little connection with the RA economy.
Excluding the contribution of these activities, total industry declined by 0.4% and exports by 8.4%.
This is the real trend of the industrial and export sector of the RA economy, which is naturally worrying, and the need for active steps in the economic policy in this direction increases even more.
Inflation is quite low and average inflation is zero, despite the continued easing of monetary policy by the Central Bank.
During the current year, the Central Bank of Armenia reduced the monetary policy interest rate by around 2.0 percentage points, but inflation remained in the range of 0% on average. Although the low rate of inflation is due to the low growth of imported prices, it also reflects the low demand in the domestic economy.
The state budget deficit is growing rapidly. The pace of economic activity is gradually slowing down, which means that in 2024 actual real GDP growth will be lower than the 7.0% underlying the budget (the government has also revised its growth forecast downwards).
However, if the current increases in budget revenues and expenditures are maintained, the deficit will reach the planned level, being higher than planned in relation to the GDP.
As a result, the level of the government's debt will also exceed the planned figure.
The full analysis is available at the following link:https://shorturl.at/9QcDa.
