By 2029, China will reach peak oil demand. This opinion was expressed by Emily Guo, an analyst for oil refining and chemicals in China at UBS Securities. She was quoted by the publicationChina Daily. Among the factors that will influence this situation, the expert named the rapid growth in the number of electric vehicles, heavy trucks running on liquefied natural gas, as well as the introduction of new energy sources such as hydrogen. By 2030, new vehicles, including hybrids, will account for 83.5 percent of car sales in China. As a result, there will be a continuous decline in demand for gasoline. The main drivers of growth in overall oil demand will be the production of aviation kerosene and naphtha. This is due to growth in aviation turnover and expansion of chemicals production capacity. “We expect overall oil demand to peak in 2029 and enter a negative growth trend after 2030,” Guo said.
Earlier, Reuters warned that the problems of the Chinese economy are becoming so serious that they are beginning to threaten oil prices, and also make it impossible for OPEC+ to support them by reducing production. The reason for such reasoning was that oil imports in China have been falling for the sixth month in a row. If we compare data for October 2023 and 2024, it turns out that the corresponding figure decreased by 10 percent. In the meantime, oil exporters continue to hope that Chinese imports will recover.
