Armenia will eventually be left out of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This follows from the conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Bishkek on September 1, writes Andrei Kolesnikov, special correspondent for “Kommersant”.
“Nikol Pashinyan was excited. If he hadn’t been excited, he wouldn’t have forgotten to button his jacket when he walked towards Vladimir Putin. Then, when he walked past journalists with him, he wouldn’t have hurriedly started buttoning it in front of the cameras when he needed to capture another handshake. And seconds later, when he sat down in his chair, he wouldn’t have reached for the button again and unbuttoned the poor jacket once again.
Vladimir Putin was flipping through the theses of the negotiations one after another and saying that Russia is in favor of “the development of friendly and mutually beneficial relations with Armenia, based on the principles of strategic partnership and alliance,” — the columnist shared his impressions.
According to the journalist, the meeting of the leaders of the two countries showed that the parties have different ideas about Armenia’s future participation in the EAEU. Putin once again called on Yerevan to orient itself on the issue of its foreign economic vector against the background of its aspiration to join the European Union.
“You know the Russian position well. Armenia’s aspiration to the EU is the natural and legal right of the country and its people. Armenia is a sovereign state, and it is the Armenian people who determine the path of its development,” — Putin stated. At the same time, he noted that rapprochement with the EU creates problems for parallel participation in the EAEU and can “zero out the republic’s advantages in the EAEU market and destroy the established trade ties.”
The Russian President stressed that Moscow will regulate its trade and economic policy depending on Yerevan's decision, and called on the Armenian authorities to make a decision as soon as possible.
Pashinyan objected that Armenia has not yet made a statement about withdrawing from the EAEU. According to him, the republic's authorities have analyzed the contractual framework and "have not found any violations of the obligations that Armenia has before the Russian Federation and the Eurasian Economic Union."
The Prime Minister recalled that the EAEU treaty provides for a procedure for withdrawing from the organization, notifying partners six months in advance. "We have not notified our partners of our intention to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union at this time," Pashinyan noted.
Speaking separately to the parliament's decision to adopt the law "On the Beginning of the Process of the Republic of Armenia's Membership in the European Union," the Prime Minister clarified that this does not mean an immediate withdrawal from the EAEU. He emphasized that Armenia wants to preserve the possibility of choice, because “at the moment we have no alternative, it has not actually been created.”
“When it is created, if it is created, then, of course, we will make a choice, with or without a referendum,” Pashinyan said.
Putin did not agree with this approach. “The adoption of a law that begins the procedure for joining another economic organization actually means a declaration of withdrawal from our union, because being both there and here at the same time is incompatible. This is precisely the problem,” the Russian president stated.
Putin also suggested putting the issue to a referendum: “I agree that the people should always have the opportunity to choose. So make that choice and let’s close the issue. That’s it. The simplest way is to turn to the people and ask: what do you want, this way or that way? That’s it.”
However, Pashinyan has made it clear that he has no intention of holding such a referendum in the near future. According to him, the question of choosing between the EU and the EAEU is not yet “ripe,” and a real alternative for Armenia has not yet been formed.
Thus, as Kolesnikov notes, the parties essentially perceive the situation differently: Yerevan believes that it still maintains membership in the EAEU and is simply considering the European direction, while Moscow views the start of the process of joining the EU as the actual beginning of its exit from the Eurasian Economic Union.
According to the assessment of the special correspondent of Kommersant, it becomes clear from the conversation that it was not possible to reach an agreement on the issue of Armenia's movement towards the EU and maintaining its membership in the EAEU. As a result, Kolesnikov concluded that Armenia will remain outside the EAEU.
